Sociopath Community

MissCommunication said: 

@Tony - The 2016 polls were pretty interesting both in their accuracy and where they missed the ball. On election day the polls had narrowed considerably and the aggregate generally gave Clinton a 2-3 point lead. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2.1 points, which was right on the button. She lost the electoral college by a slim margin (~ 80,000 votes) spread over three states. Where pollsters got it wrong was at the state level where many were oversampling whites with post-secondary education and not factoring whites with no college education as a unique voting base - that's Trump's core base. 

2020 is different because the pollsters have corrected the demographics to account for education and there are also much fewer undecided voters this election < 5%. In 2016, the undecideds were closer to 18% right up the week before the election, which meant there was a lot of room for some swing. I've been watching the polls pretty closely for months and they aren't moving a lot, and when they have this last month it's been in Biden's favour. 

Trump's disaster managing COVID-19 has likely cost him the seniors' vote, which matters because they actually vote. Biden's also leading with minorities, females, and the youth vote. I don't see how trump can pull it off at this point. He's only appealed to his base and not made any effort to expand. His only chance of winning will be to undermine the election (which he has been doing) and try to steal it through trying to call election fraud. 

The polls are brought to you by those pushing a narritive. The ones who have you hating on Trump

DNC is notorious for electoral fraud. There is still a lawsuit over the Sanders debacle. Yes they will try to steal this election, there are reasons why they changed rules and the result will not be aired on election night.

Ballot Harvesting is a thing, we've seen real evidence of that. But I can't bring that up to you Misses C cause it wasn't on CBC.

There is a silent majority due to the fact showing support for Trump can get one assaulted by angry zombies.

dr0mpf

Inquirer said: 

Their political analysis isn't anything spectacular but from what I've seen their modeling seem sound.

 Now that i think about it a lot of these polls are performing poorly and skewing deeply into error is likely because they are completely being built on stated preference instead of revealed preference. 

 A look at the election from the perspective of Reverential Preference and States Preference

I'm going to use the 2016 election results as reference

From 2016 election results we will assume that AZ, CO, GA, FL, MI, MN, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, VT, and WI are all in play for both Trump and Biden. 

Arizona - Looks like Democrates can swing it

Last election we saw, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Current early voting results, 

This differential seems to be derived from Maricopa possible being flipped

The polls don't look all that inaccurate in AZ

Colorado - No contest Dems have it

Georgia - No Contest Reps have it 

Florida - In Democrats favor

Last election, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Early voting results, 

As you can see Republicans are down while Democrats are up compared to 2016

The second county picture is Pensille. 

Other counties are in the same position or too small but these two which were red last election may go blue.

Once again polls and actual voting don't seem that far off, Florida is close which ever way you cut it. 

Michigan - In Republicans favor

Last election, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Early voting, 

This where things get interesting imo because voting for both parties is down compared to last year while unaffiliated is up significantly, but on top of that several key counties are swinging red while red is also holding on to all of its key counties. Biden could lose michigan because of third party voting and Trump may win by a larger margin than last year. 

Trump is likely to hold on to Michigan given Revealed preference data. 

The Revealed preference data is in contention with stated preference data

Minnesota - Toss up 

Last election, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Early voting, 

Once again both have dropped while unaffiliated voters have grown,

Dems have lost significant ground in the key counties Dakota and Washington

While Reps have lost ground in smaller counties Rice and Clay 

This is a toss up but if Trump turns the larger counties Red and he has a chance to now then he'll easily steal the state

Once again Referenctial and stated dataed do not see eye to eye

Continuation of last post.......

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North Carolina - Leaning Trump

Last election, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Early voting, 

Republicans have gained while Democrats have lost

NC is likely to stay red 

New Mexico - Toss Up

Last election, 

Early voting, 

Republicans gaining ground while democrats losing ground

Trump is turning key counties 

Dems still have solid control over Bernolli and Dona Ana but they have in fact lost ground in both key counties while Republicans have gained 

If New Mexico went red that would be pretty crazy and that looks like a possibility given Sandova and other smaller counties turning. 

Nevada - Leaning Red

2016 Election, 

Early voting, 

Trump is turning Washoe and Clark

Ohio - Trump has it

2016 election,

Early voting,

Not much contest here, Trump will hold it

Pennsylvania - Biden has it 

2016 Election, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Early Voting,

Democrats crushing across key counties and turning red ones blue

Virginia - Biden has it 

Vermont - Biden has it

Wisconsin - Leaning Red

2016 election, 

Current aggregate poll using stated preference,

Early voting, 

Both have lost ground but the lost is greater for Democrats

Spatial Mind said: 

Earth isn't the only planet in the solar system warming.

Yes yes I took Geology 101 in college as well and know that Global Warming is a natural phenomenon, but in that same base of knowledge it was noted how much humanity has contributed to it overtime.

Us speeding up global warming is a problem over how the planet's liable to pass a tipping point where those living on it's surface won't be able to adapt to it in time, much like how the ice age proved to be near-cataclysmic for life way back when. It's not like The Left is saying that humans are the sole cause, they're saying that we're contributing while otherwise elaborating on each individual cause separately. 

Us being the cause of global warming is a heated debate among scientists.

It really isn't, unless you subscribe to a very broad usage of the word "scientist". The debates are more over how much we contribute. 

Carbon tax is a cash grab. It doesn't stop global warming. If they are so concerned about this, then they should expand hydro electric technology.

Conversion can be expensive and companies too big to fail lobby to slow such things down. We've seen it with countless science-types who'd found alternative fuel sources being stopped and over how big business handled the initial release of the electric car. Purposeful stagnation from old money companies have shown the common practice of holding progress back. 

The rich create jobs and pay people.

They can't be counted on to do it, and most honestly don't (to the point of opposing Unionizing even). Even so, what it'd cost being lumped with proportional taxation still has them coming out ahead compared to lower finance situations. 

In the grand scheme, taxing the rich the most makes the nation less prosperous. It also makes it more difficult to get rich for those who start to make 400k and up cause the government will take "more than half" 

It's more about the cost of living, not the potential for prosperity for rich elites. 

The rich will do just fine during a Left Wing presidency, as they typically have. 

Aside from that, everyone's taxes will rise, so you too will get a pay cut, though I think you're a welfare case who is unlikely to obtain wealth. 

Increases in the right taxes offers benefits back to the people who are paying them. Keeping it purely about selfish, personal acquisition is how to ruin a nation's functionality while rich elites get richer, getting us that much closer to the madness of Anarcho-Capitalism. 

On the contrary, I can and I just did.

Then you're overgeneralizing zealously, and don't seem to mind this about yourself. I guess it makes sense that you'd rather keep your worldview simplistic; it makes it easier to construe it towards your preferred narratives. 

We're splintered down into tons, tons, of sub-demographics more so than most points in history. The only way to really get a handle on the bigger picture anymore is to learn about as many small demographics as humanly possible before seeing how their views can average together.

There may only be two candidates to vote between, but how the demographics voting for them operate independently is more predictive of what to expect from the future as the content they're appraising changes.

I doubt the right had anything to do with Biden getting elected.

What has you think that 'The Right' wouldn't want one of the worse choices to be Trump's opposition?

You underestimate how insidious politics are during the information age.

I once wrote in these pages how you will not get Yang or Sanders or Warren, But Joe Biden. How did I know ? I've been watching US politics long before it got this interesting, and I've seen it in action. It's been corrupt as fuck for decades.

What makes these days different is over how grassroots the corruption's becoming.

- The left is catching their own ass voting Biden, or not voting at all. Some of them, will vote for Trump.

It is pretty funny to see how Leftist Youtubers are responding to it:





In less words, "Biden's not the best, but Trump's worse" (an offshoot of 'Anyone but Trump') and "Biden can be bullied by the American people, while Trump's responses are detrimental to the American public".

The mainstream downplays the riots and looting by calling it peaceful protests.

Leftist news stations keep teeter tottering between calling them peaceful and otherwise demonizing them for the cop sympathy points. If you ignore the squeaky wheels, it basically is mostly peaceful protesting. There's some people starting fires and shit, some of them right wingers even aiming to take advantage of the situation by either starting fires and trying to bait others to loot, there's people leaving piles of bricks on the streets for others to find in hopes of lone insurgents casting the first stones, even just looters trying to get bigger places noticed so that they can loot smaller businesses blocks away from it while everyone's distracted.

It's a mess with both sides playing dirty. 

Not all of them resort to burning and killing or looting but it still devalues the property and deters the willingness to open shop in the area.

It'll survive, and once the protests are over it may offer cheap housing opportunities for startup businesses that lower to middle class people can take advantage of.

The FBI has no record of collusion. The CIA recently reported that the Russian collusion accusation originated from Hillary.

Can you really trust the FBI like that, or only when it's convenient for the narrative?

As Boondocks puts plainly: The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, and he otherwise has discernable paper trails when it comes to Russian business that precedes his presidency.

Also. The US owes Russia money.

The US likely does, but does it seem like a good idea when a nation's in debt to another to have our leader be in debted to them independently of the nation's coffers?

Lol his speech he gave alongside Putin where he had to let Putin speak first, good shit.

But aside from that, the US and Russia should get along. As for China, they do manipulate their own currency as a way to play the US. China did become the #1 economy under Obama. Trump took it back rather quickly. Yes that happened. 

Dropping business with China is a pipedream.

Every negative report? This claim seems a bit too bold to be real, especially when I can already think of a few that are still aging pretty well. 

Like what?

His tax returns and debt records. 

Playing with election map ideas

Florida is once again the key and once again the race is tight there. 

There seems a way around Florida for both candidates. 

Spatial Mind said: 

 

Some people don't know or recall any of this, nor do they care. They will comply with their programmers. 

Projection. 

You have leaked emails. You have video footage of Joe Biden boasting about his quid pro quo with Ukraine.

It's not a good look for you to cry projection when I mention this.

Do you deny how this applies to you just as much as you'd assume out of your opposition? 

People have somewhat of a tendency to see themselves in their enemies, making for a sort of in-group cringe. 

Some will be enraged with the results, some will be left scratching their heads, some will have tantrums and live in a bubble of ignorant resentment while entitled to the greater blessings Trump provides their nation.

Best thing to come from him's a $1200 check. 

Well. The Prison Reform doesn't serve you. Neither does the jobs coming in, or the tax cuts, since you don't do anything.

You keep trying to imply that my opinion in politics is a selfish one with no actual basis beyond ad hom. It gets in the way of our room to otherwise have a civil discussion through undermining the process.

Much of what he was falsely taking credit for towards the start of his presidency was the result of trickle down from Obama's time in office. You more so see the effect of presidential choices years after they've begun their time in office, not immediately. 

Enjoy you $1200 cheque, whatever it is you waste money on.

It was a nice boost. 

If you weren't born in the US, you wouldn't qualify for citizenship there tbh.

Guess which party makes it harder to enter? 

In my opinion, the best thing that came out of Trump, is his support for the Blue Collars.

Hahaha what? 

Oh right, you still think helping the rich helps everyone. 

Love to see black people support trump out of a desire to find a massa & black inferiority complex

MartinLooterKing said: 

Love to see black people support trump out of a desire to find a massa & black inferiority complex