alice, so you think the timing of the invasion was a coincidence?
No, quite the opposite.
I think its a well planed option that's been on the Turkish table since the PKK ramped up attacks around Ankira since 2015 along with tensions with YPG since the Siege of Kobani in 2014. And, with current U.S. vision and interests we were forced to withdraw under these constraints because we view that as better than committing to a new conflict in the region.
2015 Ankara bombings
The Consequences of the Battle for Kobani By Jenna KrajeskiFebruary 26, 2015
Since Syria has stabilized and the ISIS threat has died down, PKK and YPG activities have continued and as such Turkey has to respond because its lost a lot of momentum on the issue over the past 4 years do to ISIS.
At the same time Trump ran on U.S. withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan, and seems to want to keep good on this promise. The negotiations the U.S. has been holding between Turkey and YPG were instantiated not only to try to remove tensions but also allow the U.S. to withdraw with integrity. Those negotiations failed seemingly because neither the Kurds nor Turkey would budge on demands -likely because the demands are roughly the same, they both want the land the YPG is standing on for different reasons-.
Turkey made the threat to invade regardless of U.S. occupation and meant it this time because they cannot push off the Kurdish threat any longer.
From there a very tough decision had to be made, does the U.S. keep soldiers incapable of supporting this level of conflict in harms way? If we do then they will need a huge number of reinforcement and supplies for that posturing to be effective. This means deploying and committing more resources to a region that is not of great interest to us when one looks past morals and principles.
Essentially, the invasion and withdraw are very correlated but the inevitable invasion forced the withdraw instead of the other way around.
ok so you acknowledge that the invasion is a consequences of american troops withdrawal? also turkish troops would never dared have gone in while US troops were there, as a peacekeeping force. those troops were successfully preventing the bloodshed we're seeing now.
No, they definitely were going to invade the border region regadless of U.S. presence, we only had 50 soldiers in the region and no substantial armor.If you've followed the Syrian civil war and specifically watched the Kurdish-Turkish relationship fall apart over the past 4 years this wouldn't surprise you. I have provided endless sources in this thread that prove this. Not just media hear-say but actual statements from Turkish officials and Erdogan.
morals and principles aside, there's a very good reason america wants a foothold in the middle east, regardless of morals and principles. there are countless hot and cold conflicts going on in the middle east and its in america's interests to be in a position to control and stabilize the region and promote its own interests which it can't do as effectively if it gives countries like russia the opportunity to gain stronger presence in the region.
Syria is in the Levant, a region we have an insane amount of control over.
We have an air-force crews and other air assets located at Mashabim base in Israel to act as a EUCOM for the guidance of air-missions in the region.
We have the Al-Tanf base in Southern Syria, 150 special soldiers are to stay there post-withdrawal.
5000 soldiers are stationed in Iraq.
And ofc Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, which is one of our most important strategic bases in the area. Other than from Aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean this base is where we projected our hegemony in Syria from. It is the key to U.S. controlling the skys in the region, and with the new EUCOM in Israel the range of that base now touches Egypt in the South and Iraq in the East.
Don't forget Amuwaffaq Salti Airbase or H-4 Airbase located in Jordan.
The list goes on.
So...is that peace-keeping force effective and secure? Didn't their presence force the Russians to step up their presence? Remember when the Russians established a base in Pakmrya? Remeber when the Russians esltablished a base in Latakia? How about in 2017 when the Russians and Syria signed an agreement to allow Russia to expand their air and sea base at Tartus? What about their newly established intelligence bases in in Syria?
