Or the more common version:
after looking at the data, i have decided to get the shot. mainly because it does protect against some of the nasty viruses.
BUT i did find out some interesting data about the actual poor(20%-50%) effectiveness. basically what is happening is that there are many many viruses that are not in the shot. the shot does not protect against all of them. so guess what, those are the viruses that spread and get people sick.
basic natural selection or in this case, human selection of the antigenic drifted viruses. we are selecting for the drifted viruses to survive. are we causing a more diverse virus population? or will this happen anyway? fascinating
from the cdc
"As described above, when the virus components of the flu vaccine are not well matched with circulating influenza viruses, the benefits of influenza vaccination may be reduced. However, the degree of antigenic drift from vaccine viruses and the proportion of circulating drifted viruses can vary. As a result, even when circulating influenza viruses are mildly or moderately drifted in comparison to the vaccine, it is still possible that people may receive some protective benefit from influenza vaccination. In addition, even when some circulating influenza viruses are significantly drifted, it is possible for other influenza viruses in circulation to be well matched to the vaccine. It is not possible to predict how well the vaccine and circulating strains will be matched in advance of the influenza season, nor is it possible to predict how this match may affect vaccine effectiveness."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectivenessqa.htm#matched
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm
after looking at the data, i have decided to get the shot. mainly because it does protect against some of the nasty viruses.
BUT i did find out some interesting data about the actual poor(20%-50%) effectiveness. basically what is happening is that there are many many viruses that are not in the shot. the shot does not protect against all of them. so guess what, those are the viruses that spread and get people sick.
basic natural selection or in this case, human selection of the antigenic drifted viruses. we are selecting for the drifted viruses to survive. are we causing a more diverse virus population? or will this happen anyway? fascinating
from the cdc
"As described above, when the virus components of the flu vaccine are not well matched with circulating influenza viruses, the benefits of influenza vaccination may be reduced. However, the degree of antigenic drift from vaccine viruses and the proportion of circulating drifted viruses can vary. As a result, even when circulating influenza viruses are mildly or moderately drifted in comparison to the vaccine, it is still possible that people may receive some protective benefit from influenza vaccination. In addition, even when some circulating influenza viruses are significantly drifted, it is possible for other influenza viruses in circulation to be well matched to the vaccine. It is not possible to predict how well the vaccine and circulating strains will be matched in advance of the influenza season, nor is it possible to predict how this match may affect vaccine effectiveness."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectivenessqa.htm#matched
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm
That's more or less how I view it, essentially a 'it can't hurt' situation.
This is an interesting topic from the analytics stand point, I wonder what optimization techniques are being utilized in selecting and scheduling vaccines.
after looking at the data, i have decided to get the shot. mainly because it does protect against some of the nasty viruses.
BUT i did find out some interesting data about the actual poor(20%-50%) effectiveness. basically what is happening is that there are many many viruses that are not in the shot. the shot does not protect against all of them. so guess what, those are the viruses that spread and get people sick.
basic natural selection or in this case, human selection of the antigenic drifted viruses. we are selecting for the drifted viruses to survive. are we causing a more diverse virus population? or will this happen anyway? fascinating
from the cdc
"As described above, when the virus components of the flu vaccine are not well matched with circulating influenza viruses, the benefits of influenza vaccination may be reduced. However, the degree of antigenic drift from vaccine viruses and the proportion of circulating drifted viruses can vary. As a result, even when circulating influenza viruses are mildly or moderately drifted in comparison to the vaccine, it is still possible that people may receive some protective benefit from influenza vaccination. In addition, even when some circulating influenza viruses are significantly drifted, it is possible for other influenza viruses in circulation to be well matched to the vaccine. It is not possible to predict how well the vaccine and circulating strains will be matched in advance of the influenza season, nor is it possible to predict how this match may affect vaccine effectiveness."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectivenessqa.htm#matched
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm
I'm proud of you Billy. Something that I would like to add here is that the flu shot becomes more effective after several consecutive years of getting it. While the shot may only have a 20-40% effectiveness for preventing that year's flu season, the immunity to those strains stays in a person for several years. With genetic drift, a descendant strain may have a new name, but could still be covered by the protection of a vaccine created for it's ancestor. Getting a vaccine 3-5 years consecutively would offer wide spectrum protection to circulating viruses antigenically similar to past year's flu shot strains that were not covered in that year's flu shot.
Here is an influenza pandemic training course I took for school last semester. If you are able to create a CDC training account you may find this interesting. If you are unable to create an account let me know, I'll send you screen shots of the slides. For some courses you must be affiliated with a healthcare institution, university, or government to access them, idk if this is one that needs those credentials.