It's going to be a long night and final results could come in slowly, but there will likely be enough indicators tonight to call the election.
Factors at play: all 50 states (and Washington, D.C.) administer the vote differently according to their own rules, with different guidelines on how to vote, how to count the vote and how to report the vote.
Record-breaking numbers of Americans have cast their ballots early or by mail so nobody knows for sure how long it will take to get a result.
This is clear:
· Joe Biden is the favourite to win and his chances look better than Clinton’s in 2016.
· If the polls hold and he wins by the margin predicted, that's likely to be obvious at some point tonight.
· It will likely take days, at best to know the final count.
Poll timelines:
By 7 p.m. ish Eastern time, Biden and Trump should start marking their first wins. Parts of Indiana and Kentucky close polls at 6 p.m., parts of Florida at 7 p.m., parts of Kansas, Michigan and Texas at 8 p.m. and parts of Idaho at 10 p.m.
Networks don’t have to wait to call projections on a state. When the first polls close, Indiana and Kentucky will likely be projected for Trump right away, and Vermont will be called for Biden (these are no-brainers). That will give Trump 19 electoral college votes shortly after 7 p.m. against only three for Biden.
7:30 p.m. Some swing states will begin reporting results. West Virginia will likely be called for Trump after the polls close. This will push his electoral college vote tally to 24.
North Carolina and Ohio are expected to be very close — so even if the votes there are counted quickly, it might take a nearly complete count before a winner can be projected. But early trends in these three states could be telling, as these states are all must-wins for Trump.
8:30 p.m. Polls close in Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee.
The networks will be able to make a lot of projections at 8 p.m. or shortly thereafter:
Looks like Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C., Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island will go for Biden and Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee for Trump. That would put the count at 75 for Biden and 57 for Trump.
Time will tell! :D
