Whether it's really Legga or not is up to question.
Why wouldn't he just log onto his main account? The guy has nothing to hide when it comes to what 'Legga' has done.
I agree but for now I'm willing to entertain whether it is him or not.
I've now computed probabilities pertaining to profitable mean reversion events.
I define mean reversion as a return to mean value, which drifts, after deviating from that mean value.
I am assuming a mean reversion to be profitable because and deviation from a mean that returns to the mean implies value has been traversed, as such that traversed value can be captured.
The Y_axis represents probability while the X_axis represents events.
Three sets of events are presented in this post,
(1) The number of Mean reversions that take place over a single trading day
(2) The number of mean reversions that take place between 9:30 AM to 12:00 PM per trading day
(3) The number of mean reversions that take place between 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM per trading day
All of the data in these sets have been obtained from the trading days 10/5/20 - 10/21/20
Daily Mean Reversions
μ = 25/4, σ = sqrt(361/28)
Probability of Mean Reversions between 9:30AM - 12:00PM
μ = 47/12, σ = sqrt(395/112)
Probability of Mean Reversions between 12:00PM - 4:00PM
μ = 32/13, σ = sqrt(510/169)
All Three Sets represented in Histogram form
green -> 12pm-4pm, Orange -> 9:30am - 12pm, Blue -> Total Mean Reversion per Day
All Three Sets represented by lines of best fit
Red -> 12pm-4pm, Green -> 9:30am - 12pm, Blue -> Total Mean Reversion per Day
and I just got rekt hard
I am speechless. what the fuck are they thinking?
last edit on
10/22/2020 12:29:03 PM
Jim, you've traded crypto futures right?
Yes
What's the returns like on them?
Insane depending on the volume of your borrows. At my peak I went in with 5k and made 100$ off a dollar difference at x5.
If your timing and range guesses are good you can easily make thousands in a day.
What's a your minimum position and how much return do you get out of them?
I am going to start modeling them because I'd like to trade them in the next couple of weeks.
The minimum position is inversely correlated to the size of the move you are expecting. Large amounts for smaller ranges. Smaller amounts for larger moves.
I put in 100$ during the Bitcoin 10200$ to 9800$ crash and turned it to 500$ on x20 leverage but this is insane as I would have been blown out at a 50$ increase. Set stop losses as tight as your loli hole.
Jim, you've traded crypto futures right?
Yes
What's the returns like on them?
Insane depending on the volume of your borrows. At my peak I went in with 5k and made 100$ off a dollar difference at x5.
If your timing and range guesses are good you can easily make thousands in a day.
What's a your minimum position and how much return do you get out of them?
I am going to start modeling them because I'd like to trade them in the next couple of weeks.
The minimum position is inversely correlated to the size of the move you are expecting. Large amounts for smaller ranges. Smaller amounts for larger moves.
I put in 100$ during the Bitcoin 10200$ to 9800$ crash and turned it to 500$ on x20 leverage but this is insane as I would have been blown out at a 50$ increase. Set stop losses as tight as your loli hole.
Thank you so much!
mean reversions over the past 48 hours, really tempting to trade these given how predictable they are.
Just to follow up on what I had asked previously:
What percentage gain does that 8k/day correspond to? That is, how much money are you trading per day to get that 8k/day net gain? Are you also accounting for `rare` losses there (i.e., the 0.1-1% total crashes)?
I read up on option trading some more, and it seems like a fancy way to conjure money out of thin air by making horse racing with stocks a thing. I now understand why you can make so much more during a short period of time by trading options as opposed to stocks. It also seems more like gambling, though, at least if the market is smarter than you.
Ps. I opened an account with Ameritrades and now have access to ThinkOrSwim.
Turncoat said:Whether it's really Legga or not is up to question.
Why wouldn't he just log onto his main account? The guy has nothing to hide when it comes to what 'Legga' has done.
It's me, Turncoat. I don't know, you can ask me a question only I know the answer to or something.
last edit on
10/23/2020 9:33:35 PM
Jim, you've traded crypto futures right?
Yes
What's the returns like on them?
Insane depending on the volume of your borrows. At my peak I went in with 5k and made 100$ off a dollar difference at x5.
If your timing and range guesses are good you can easily make thousands in a day.
What's a your minimum position and how much return do you get out of them?
I am going to start modeling them because I'd like to trade them in the next couple of weeks.
The minimum position is inversely correlated to the size of the move you are expecting. Large amounts for smaller ranges. Smaller amounts for larger moves.
I put in 100$ during the Bitcoin 10200$ to 9800$ crash and turned it to 500$ on x20 leverage but this is insane as I would have been blown out at a 50$ increase. Set stop losses as tight as your loli hole.
Thank you so much!
mean reversions over the past 48 hours, really tempting to trade these given how predictable they are.
There is some good consolidation happening around 3 to 6 AM Bucharest time where you can catch those 10 dollar ranges. Good luck!
Just to follow up on what I had asked previously:
What percentage gain does that 8k/day correspond to? That is, how much money are you trading per day to get that 8k/day net gain?
10k per trade, I do a few trades a day.
Are you also accounting for `rare` losses there (i.e., the 0.1-1% total crashes)?
Always.
I only buy options which means my downside is only as large as my purchasing price.
I only trade what I can afford to lose, and this is basically my back stop.
Having said this those rare crashes such as black Monday where you essentially have nothing but a red candle hardly effect me regardless because my strategy is built on high liquidity. Such crashes are only an issue who have longer term positions.
Even in major crashes like we saw recently the markets on the daily behave approximately the same, the only difference is a more aggressive mean drift which is very tolerable under my trading style given my strategy is built on volatility.
I read up on option trading some more, and it seems like a fancy way to conjure money out of thin air by making horse racing with stocks a thing. I now understand why you can make so much more during a short period of time by trading options as opposed to stocks. It also seems more like gambling, though, at least if the market is smarter than you.
Well the standard risk profile would have them categorized as speculations.
That profile is heavily shaped by your strategy and the nature of your trades
You can trade stocks as if you're gambling and you can bring options trading below the level of speculation while still maximizing returns my managing the risk profile.
Most people trade options in a manner in which they decide the stock X will be value Y by the end of Z where Z is some expiration date of the option. Given they think A will be valued at B by C they will make their strike price S approximately Y to capture the most gain from the the move to Y.
They have a chance at insane returns, I see people pulling off 50k off 10k trades over a week when correct. However I see more people lose 90% of their trade and the reason for this is that they are speculating on an event with low probability. As such their risk profile is really quite insane.
My trading thesis is: Underlying A has an average daily mean B and the probability of a mean reversion is C at variance D.
I trade on highly probable events that take place every single day multiple times a day and I make my strike price the value at D and as such my lost rate is linear instead of parabolic.
That's just how I trade and options can be complex, I know guys who trade options long term with the same risk profile as me but their style isn't my thing and mine isn't theirs. I believe in active trading because I believe in high liquidity as another back stop to my risk profile while they don't - it's an opportunity cost.
Ps. I opened an account with Ameritrades and now have access to ThinkOrSwim.
Turncoat said:Whether it's really Legga or not is up to question.
Why wouldn't he just log onto his main account? The guy has nothing to hide when it comes to what 'Legga' has done.It's me, Turncoat. I don't know, you can ask me a question only I know the answer to or something.
What do you think Turncoat?
He does seem fishy given he wants me to join a sketchy TOX server for 'privacy'.
> 10k per trade, I do a few trades a day.
Sounds reasonable.
> Always.
> I only buy options which means my downside is only as large as my purchasing price.
> I only trade what I can afford to lose, and this is basically my back stop.
> Having said this those rare crashes such as black Monday where you essentially have nothing but a red candle hardly effect me regardless because my strategy is built on high liquidity. Such crashes are only an issue who have longer term positions.
> Even in major crashes like we saw recently the markets on the daily behave approximately the same, the only difference is a more aggressive mean drift which is very tolerable under my trading style given my strategy is built on volatility.
Fair enough.
> Well the standard risk profile would have them categorized as speculations.
> That profile is heavily shaped by your strategy and the nature of your trades
> You can trade stocks as if you're gambling and you can bring options trading below the level of speculation while still maximizing returns my managing the risk profile.
> Most people trade options in a manner in which they decide the stock X will be value Y by the end of Z where Z is some expiration date of the option. Given they think A will be valued at B by C they will make their strike price S approximately Y to capture the most gain from the the move to Y.
> They have a chance at insane returns, I see people pulling off 50k off 10k trades over a week when correct. However I see more people lose 90% of their trade and the reason for this is that they are speculating on an event with low probability. As such their risk profile is really quite insane.
I see how this happenes in principle, the part that confuses me is how one can make it work in practice. I'll need to get to know some of the fundamentals first and then build from there. Hopefully, things'll clarify once I get the gist of the basics.
If I were to draw an analogy, I can see a chess board, and I can see people making fancy winning moves, but I don't understand the rules of the chess. So even if someone tells me about a fancy way to win, I can copy it, but I won't understand why it works -- which is what I see as the biggest issue right now. I need a few fundamental building blocks that I can trust. I'm not looking for big returns, I'm approaching this as a potentially fun hobby, for now.
> My trading thesis is: Underlying A has an average daily mean B and the probability of a mean reversion is C at variance D.
> I trade on highly probable events that take place every single day multiple times a day and I make my strike price the value at D and as such my lost rate is linear instead of parabolic.
> That's just how I trade and options can be complex, I know guys who trade options long term with the same risk profile as me but their style isn't my thing and mine isn't theirs. I believe in active trading because I believe in high liquidity as another back stop to my risk profile while they don't - it's an opportunity cost.
Alright.
> What do you think Turncoat?
> He does seem fishy given he wants me to join a sketchy TOX server for 'privacy'.
https://tox.chat/
By privacy, I meant `security.`
Tox is not sketchy, although I can see how it might be seen that way without the appropriate context/familiarity with the software. If anything, Discord is sketchy. Tox is open source, so it's open for review by anyone. Discord isn't. Any backdoors or security issues within Discord will be hidden away. Closed-source projects tend to have much more security flaws than their open-source counterparts. Having said that, tox has less features, because they want to build everything to be reliable and test it properly, whereas Discord wants to make a profit. I've spoken against use of Discord on several occasions here, saying we should switch to something else.
I found tox via this wiki page: https://www.whonix.org/wiki/VoIP#Tox
The software listed on that site are the VC options available to me, if I want to use tor (which I have since the beginning of visiting SC in 2010).
The other possibility was Mumble, which is also secure, but the issue is that apparently I can't host it with whonix for anyone outside of the tor network. I tried that out already. Which leaves me with either Tox or some other magic software that I am not aware of. Discord won't allow me to connect to it via a tor relay -- they want a handle on people's personal data (including geodata) in order to use their services. I'm not going to support that.
If you want more resources to convince you that Tox is reliable, and not sketchy, I can dig up some more. Alternatively, we can also just chat here. I suggested VC because I thought it might be easier to discuss via voice chat to avoid too much back-and-forth (I find it easier to discuss stuff like this via VC). Anyway, up to you. If you want Turncoat to confirm it's me, that's fine too, I don't think it's hard to prove it.
My last private chat with Turncoat was about my work, and I was complaining that I'm getting burnt out. I'm sure he can verify. My last private chat with you was on religion (but you already publicly acknowledged that). My last private chat with SpatialMind was about that girl who had some sketchy work @ Canadian politics, and some minor stocks discussion.
last edit on
10/24/2020 3:24:05 PM