Sociopath Community

I see. Alright perhaps it's not collapsing, but simply slumping for 5-10 years. However, they've been doing better than other countries, economically speaking, throughout covid. I'd say if there were good reasons to believe it'll slump, there should be warning signs, but there are signs to the contrary.

I believe in simple analyses that break things down into major components. However, most youtube analyses are trying to overcomplicate things and are overtly speculative. If an economist gets it right 95% of the time, he's probably worth watching. But nobody cares about predictions that are obvious. So people choose exciting, speculative topics instead. Hence why I think that 95% is more like 20%, for most well-known economists. The highly speculative, exciting news get highlighted.

China's advantage is a more powerful economy that has sustained incredible and stable growth throughout 2 decades. Most of the things that a country does is powered by the economy. Tbh even if there was a 5 years long depression, which I don't believe there will be, I think that too will simply delay China's plans by a decade at most.

What I like is consistently reviewing past predictions, like Scott Alexander does:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023

I see this being much more rare for economists, especially the famous ones.

Coincidentally, I happened to find this linear extrapolation scheme and some predictions for China from 2010:
https://akarlin.com/underestimating-china/

Especially the GDP prediction turned out to be spot on, including the reduction in the GDP growth, almost exactly as predicted, and starkly in contrast to what was circulating in the western news at the time. It was not at all a sophisticated analysis. Yet it was incredibly accurate, from 2010 to 2023.

By a russian dude, of course.