Sociopath Community

Sounds fancy :D I guess it has been a downward trend.

We're similar. Back when I was a student, I was more or less the only person who had research mini-projects on the side that I was constantly working on. I never cared about the work I was supposed to do and I never studied for exams, I cared much more about applying what I knew to new things.

I even had a small mini project here to inspect people's sleeping patterns via a web crawler. That's when I discovered that Inquirer-SensitiveSoul link (in addition to a few other links such as with Jhawk-Tom sockpuppet relation; I also `discovered` my own sock puppet). Additionally, I did a bunch of keyword analysis to look for unique words that people here used. E.g., Chet was the only person who consistently used the word `platonic.`

It was fun while it lasted, but I have lost the data since. I think I just threw it away when I left the forum for the first time (for a period of 3 years). I wanted to delete everything that reminded me of this forum or my online life. Funny how I came back here yet again. I'll probably leave again after that Inq debate.

It seems like our approaches to stocks are very different, however. We're similar in that I try my best to understand the stock market. In particular, I really wanted to see if I could predict the stock market based on Bayesian analysis and stochastic modeling.

However, I was discouraged by two things: Firstly, there are many people who are much smarter than me who've done it for a much longer time. I see the stock market as a game theory, to an extent. If the players are smarter than me, I can't beat them. Secondly, I am not convinced that the stock market can be reliably predicted based on financial information alone. There are several unknown variables that account for a part of the behavior. E.g., the news, chance, performance of the companies, public opinion. Many of these are reflected in the stock markets, but typically we only get to see the destructive aftermath of their effect. If I had access to Facebook data, I think I could add in more variables to the equations and gain a competetive edge. Similarly, if I could somehow find a way to process the news automatically and include them in the analyses, I'd gain a valuable edge.

Therefore, I submit that the ones who have access to the widest coverage of the world's digital data can rule the stock market. Unfortunately, I don't belong to that group.

Instead, my approach to the stock market is to eliminate all the dumb and risky choices. I choose well-established companies and buy stocks that are temporarily not favored (like the airline stocks right now). Also, I buy when others sell and are pessimistic about the market, and sell when others buy and are overtly optimistic about the market (as has been the case for the past N months). It's a very boring tactic.

Legga said: 

Sounds fancy :D I guess it has been a downward trend.

We're similar. Back when I was a student, I was more or less the only person who had research mini-projects on the side that I was constantly working on. I never cared about the work I was supposed to do and I never studied for exams, I cared much more about applying what I knew to new things.

I was the same, constantly procrastinating my school work so I could work on my own. 

When I find an idea or concept I really like all I want to do is focus on it and it alone, this derailed me all the time from work too. 

I have a very addictive personality in this sense.

I even had a small mini project here to inspect people's sleeping patterns via a web crawler. That's when I discovered that Inquirer-SensitiveSoul link (in addition to a few other links such as with Jhawk-Tom sockpuppet relation; I also `discovered` my own sock puppet). Additionally, I did a bunch of keyword analysis to look for unique words that people here used. E.g., Chet was the only person who consistently used the word `platonic.`

It was fun while it lasted, but I have lost the data since. I think I just threw it away when I left the forum for the first time (for a period of 3 years). I wanted to delete everything that reminded me of this forum or my online life. Funny how I came back here yet again. I'll probably leave again after that Inq debate.

I figured you did things like that after seeing your cumulative distribution of how full of shit Inq is. 

I found that very funny btw. 

It seems like our approaches to stocks are very different, however. We're similar in that I try my best to understand the stock market. In particular, I really wanted to see if I could predict the stock market based on Bayesian analysis and stochastic modeling.

However, I was discouraged by two things: Firstly, there are many people who are much smarter than me who've done it for a much longer time. I see the stock market as a game theory, to an extent. If the players are smarter than me, I can't beat them. Secondly, I am not convinced that the stock market can be reliably predicted based on financial information alone. There are several unknown variables that account for a part of the behavior. E.g., the news, chance, performance of the companies, public opinion. Many of these are reflected in the stock markets, but typically we only get to see the destructive aftermath of their effect. If I had access to Facebook data, I think I could add in more variables to the equations and gain a competetive edge. Similarly, if I could somehow find a way to process the news automatically and include them in the analyses, I'd gain a valuable edge.

Very legitimate concern and I admit I share it but I am optimistic. 

Optimistic because I do believe myself clever and despite not being able to predict the market I do think I can optimize risk and yield based on a set of paths utilizing stochastic methods.

I've been working on a options valuation models using brownian motion, here's what the results look like. 

This is just a prototype of my brownian class, the long term hope is to run many iterations and use probability distribution and optimization to find a set of likely paths with the nonlinear yield and linear risk profile. 

Each of the models above have the same constraints, no change to the variables. 

Therefore, I submit that the ones who have access to the widest coverage of the world's digital data can rule the stock market. Unfortunately, I don't belong to that group.

Instead, my approach to the stock market is to eliminate all the dumb and risky choices. I choose well-established companies and buy stocks that are temporarily not favored (like the airline stocks right now). Also, I buy when others sell and are pessimistic about the market, and sell when others buy and are overtly optimistic about the market (as has been the case for the past N months). It's a very boring tactic.

 The simplest methods work tbh and I also trade as a contrarian in respect to retailers. 

I trade Volatility on technicals, its' simple but extremely profitable. 

My goal to start trading was to find a few variables I deem effective and just focus on them and them alone, variance, mean price, and opening price are my bread and butter. 

That options valuation model thing you got there, I have no idea what that is but it needs to be filtered or something so the sooner you can implement the probability distribution the better.

Looking through the markets I realized that bitcoin cash has been lagging behind the other markets. Decided to buy around 3.5 at 208 USD sunday on binance. today its 233 as we speak. god bless this shitcoin

I am convinced that the most important thing to my overall return performance over the next few decades will be my data pipeline. 

Quantitative methods in my opinion are superior as it removes a lot of the bias out of trades and allows you to optimize risk and returns. This has become a popular means of method for many of the new economy hedge funds that have popped up since post-1997 and yet a staggering number of them struggle and underperform, why? Because their data pipeline and infrastructure sucks. Out of those that do succeed very few of them put much study into anomalies and therefore have weak multidecade performance. 

Pipeline is everything. 

AliceInWonderland said: 

I am convinced that the most important thing to my overall return performance over the next few decades will be my data pipeline. 

Quantitative methods in my opinion are superior as it removes a lot of the bias out of trades and allows you to optimize risk and returns. This has become a popular means of method for many of the new economy hedge funds that have popped up since post-1997 and yet a staggering number of them struggle and underperform, why? Because their data pipeline and infrastructure sucks. Out of those that do succeed very few of them put much study into anomalies and therefore have weak multidecade performance. 

Pipeline is everything. 

 That'll probably work, considering we need to set emotions aside when trading, which is easy for small amounts, but the bigger the investment, the more difficult it is to set feelings aside. 

Spatial Mind said: 

AliceInWonderland said: 

I am convinced that the most important thing to my overall return performance over the next few decades will be my data pipeline. 

Quantitative methods in my opinion are superior as it removes a lot of the bias out of trades and allows you to optimize risk and returns. This has become a popular means of method for many of the new economy hedge funds that have popped up since post-1997 and yet a staggering number of them struggle and underperform, why? Because their data pipeline and infrastructure sucks. Out of those that do succeed very few of them put much study into anomalies and therefore have weak multidecade performance. 

Pipeline is everything. 

 That'll probably work, considering we need to set emotions aside when trading, which is easy for small amounts, but the bigger the investment, the more difficult it is to set feelings aside. 

 Indeed. 

The last 7 months (3 of which were void of trading do to illness) I've spent all my time learning the fundamentals and am now at a point that I am extremely profitable on intraday trades. I could stick with this level and at the least will be a millionaire and say fuck it but honestly I am not in trading for the money anymore.

Finance is a fascinating and data rich space ripe for mathematical developments. 

The more I read about crypto the more I want to get involved in that as well, and I mean beyond just trading. Idk if I want to get into actual dev stuff but honestly cypto specific models are completely none existent - you can of course use carry methods over from normal finance but I in know way believe they do crypto products justice as they really are a whole other type of animal. 

I scalped 3k today using the VWAP, it's my first time using it but and I'm now hooked. 

Just played each dip and assumed a mean reversion would take place where the VWAP acts as the mean. 

I am now contemplating the risk of using this indicator because it's extremely reliable but obviously has to fail at some points. 

The most common risk I see here is when you don't optimally pick a top or bottom and instead catch the middle of the price action. Now you can be sure that the price will mean revert and return to vwap but the question where will the mean be when the reversion takes place? If the time between two reversions is long the risk is drift, essentially the mean drifts up and down as new highs are reached over a long period. 

The new questions are: 

(1) What is the average drift during the average time between two reversions? 

(2) What is the average drift at the tails of time between reversions? 

AliceInWonderland said: 

I was the same, constantly procrastinating my school work so I could work on my own. 

When I find an idea or concept I really like all I want to do is focus on it and it alone, this derailed me all the time from work too. 

I have a very addictive personality in this sense.

I can tell.

I figured you did things like that after seeing your cumulative distribution of how full of shit Inq is. 

I found that very funny btw. 

Fantastic, I thought I was the only one who understood my sense of humor around here.

Very legitimate concern and I admit I share it but I am optimistic. 

Optimistic because I do believe myself clever and despite not being able to predict the market I do think I can optimize risk and yield based on a set of paths utilizing stochastic methods.

I've been working on a options valuation models using brownian motion, here's what the results look like. 

This is just a prototype of my brownian class, the long term hope is to run many iterations and use probability distribution and optimization to find a set of likely paths with the nonlinear yield and linear risk profile. 

Each of the models above have the same constraints, no change to the variables. 

Cool, have you had a chance to see how well it works?

 The simplest methods work tbh and I also trade as a contrarian in respect to retailers. 

I trade Volatility on technicals, its' simple but extremely profitable. 

My goal to start trading was to find a few variables I deem effective and just focus on them and them alone, variance, mean price, and opening price are my bread and butter. 

That's probably a good starting point. Hammer the basics.