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Germany Refugee Crime Rate - Statistical analysis.


Posts: 1319

Right so many people seem confused and googling the issue turns up countless articles with clear biases and uncredible sources. It seems like the world is too fucking lazy to do some basic research into the topic and post some actual facts. So let's do it for them. 

This thread is not for analysis of the causes or effects simply the statistics and numbers.

 

The statistics and numbers will be taken from the German police themselves or Eurostat.

So starting with Eurostat's numbers of non-Germans living in Germany in 2014. 

The number of total non Germans in Germany 2014 was 884,893. 51% of those were from EU member countries. That leaves us with around 451,295 non-German immigrants not from the EU.The immigration into Germany from 2013 to 2014 was 192,180 an increase by 27%.

 

Using numbers from the german police department we can get the total number of non-German suspects which is at 617,392. An increase by 14.1% compared from 2013 to 2014. Which means relative to net immigration the net amount of suspects has dropped by 52% relative to new migration.

 

Another thing that needs to be taken into account in order to compare the criminality of immigrants with national Germans is the fact that immigrants can commit crimes Germans can't (the police report for 2014 cited this as the main reason the two are not comparable). However we can work around that by calculating the number of these cases and subtracting that from the total suspicions. 49,714 reported illegal entries and 156,396 offences against the Residence Act and the Asylum Procedures Act and the Freedom of Movement Act/E.U. This brings us to 411,282 crimes in total suspected of non-Germans .

This includes immigrants from the EU. But we can do better than that, suspicion is not crime and by using the police's clearing numbers for each time of crime and aggregating that with the portion of suspicions of non-Germans we can create a crude picture of that actual crime level of the non-Germans. With the aggregate clearing rate of 51% we get a total of 205641 crimes committed by non-germans (eu included).

 

More to be added

 

Posts: 2658
Germany Refugee Crime Rate - Statistical analysis.

>believing official statistics / cover up attempts

kok

Posts: 1319
Germany Refugee Crime Rate - Statistical analysis.

They only realized the suspect of a crime's origin. Not what crime it was.

The total German suspects of crimes was 1,532,112 (2014) compared to my estimated 205,641 crimes committed by non-germans (eu included). That's about 21 crimes per 1000 population for natives (total crimes divided by German population (not counting Non-Germans) 1,532,112/73,000,000). 2.098% crime rate.

For Non-Germans, EU included (not counting crimes only they can commit like illegal entries etc) the total crimes divided by clearing rate gives us an estimated number of 205,641 divided by the non-german population in 2014 (9.9 million) we get a crime rate of (205,641/10000000) or 21 crimes per 1000 population. 

It is important to take into account the fact that people in neighbouring countries and people other developed EU countries are counted as non-german too.

Posts: 904
Germany Refugee Crime Rate - Statistical analysis.

How do the numbers compare to that of crimes committed by the German population? What are the nature of the crimes committed by immigrants as compared to Germans?

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