Sociopath Community

I suppose it is still good that you have the drive to try new things, but you really don't seem overtly dedicated to anything beyond your immediate base of talents. 

You prefer easy answers. 

Turncoat said: 

I suppose it is still good that you have the drive to try new things, but you really don't seem overtly dedicated to anything beyond your immediate base of talents. 

You prefer easy answers. 

 what are some things you would recommend puppygirl to explore 

What methods and metrics do you use to make 'predictions'. 

Turncoat said: 

I suppose it is still good that you have the drive to try new things, but you really don't seem overtly dedicated to anything beyond your immediate base of talents. 

You prefer easy answers. 

 Yeah, honestly my IQ isn't that high. When I compare myself to Michael, I know I am just a pleb lol. Smart people have 150 IQs. I feel like I am slightly above average. 

I like to try lots of hobbies. I build planes and fly drones and program websites, etc. Look at this Fish-bot I made last year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KrIfsIBKH0

I do stuff that doesn't earn money too. I like think about how the 4 fundamental forces relate to each other and other physics stuff

I am hoping I can get rich from stocks and then I will create an army of reproducing space robots that mine asteroids so that Humanity can build whatever it wants in orbit at a really low cost

AliceInWonderland said: 

What methods and metrics do you use to make 'predictions'. 

 Well I love geopolitics, and I have been obsessing over what is going to happen in the future.

I am like 99% sure that Europe and China are going to collapse economiclly and Africa is gonna starve to death and Russia is gonna attack Poland after Ukraine so the oil and natural gas prices should go up quite a bit from the war, and once Biden's oil reserves run out... they will have to rebuy.

So I think oil and natural gas prices will go up. Natural gas is at an all time low, and I think it's going to reverse really soon and start trending back up due to the war in russia, increased lng exports, and not much investments in energy infrastructure since all the big banks think carbon-neutral is the future so production shoudlnt go up too much in the next couple years

So my strategy is to focus 100% on henry hub natural gas and WTI Crude oil and to try to get to know their patterns and the things that influence them. I designed this little energy dashboard thing that i might turn into a website so that i can have all that info i want in 1 place

puppygirl said:

I am like 99% sure that Europe and China are going to collapse economiclly and Africa is gonna starve to death and Russia is gonna attack Poland after Ukraine so the oil and natural gas prices should go up quite a bit from the war, and once Biden's oil reserves run out... they will have to rebuy.

Zeihan fan? 

From your blog it looks like you are doing short term positions.

You would benefit from understanding odds of your bets and optimal betting (you will win more often, optimize bets, and reduce risk). A dashboard with probabilistic metrics would be cooler.

Headlines will not help you in most cases because EMH and your lack of speed, effectively there is no arbitrage. 

Blanc said: 

Turncoat said: 

I suppose it is still good that you have the drive to try new things, but you really don't seem overtly dedicated to anything beyond your immediate base of talents. 

You prefer easy answers. 

 what are some things you would recommend puppygirl to explore 

Social Dynamics. 

I've been thinking about machine learning but haven't had the time to put into the research.

Forecasting on metal resource spot settlement price: New evidence from the machine learning model

"We found that LSTM-GRU and other models also perform well with strong robustness. Therefore, we believed that the LSTM hybrid model, especially the LSTM-GRU model, is suitable for analyzing the prediction of spot settlement price of metal minerals."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301420723000685

Maybe a simple natural gas economic model with supply and demand inputs. Start simple and see what others have done.

LiYang said: 

I've been thinking about machine learning but haven't had the time to put into the research.

 

Forecasting on metal resource spot settlement price: New evidence from the machine learning model

"We found that LSTM-GRU and other models also perform well with strong robustness. Therefore, we believed that the LSTM hybrid model, especially the LSTM-GRU model, is suitable for analyzing the prediction of spot settlement price of metal minerals."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301420723000685

 

Maybe a simple natural gas economic model with supply and demand inputs. Start simple and see what others have done.

Forecasting doesn't matter as it doesn't inform your actual PNL. 

You can be right about the behavior of a random variable X and still go bust if your pay off function f(x) doesn't align with what your forecasting. 

Moreover, given X in markets is a highly stochastic variable that is fat-tailed its very difficult to accurately forecast given the complexity of that variable. As such, almost all your focus should be towards your payoff function f(x) given its far simpler and doesn't rely on making predictions but instead odds and optimal betting. 

All the stupidity in statistics can really be summarized as the focus on values of functions instead of the functions of values.