New data? What happened?
Why is it taking so long?
For the house 206 for RNC. DNC has 186. ( 218 for win )
For Senate 48 RNC. 46 DNC. ( 51 for win )
.
.
.
If Republicans take both senate and house LOL.
The Republican leader is Donald Trump. He'll have power to block the shit out of Biden's orders.
2024 is going to be so insane. Plus the Lord did a marvelous job exposing evil this past while.
Semi-relevant, election modeling is pretty interesting and has a lot of similarities to derivative pricing.
Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
Semi-relevant, election modeling is pretty interesting and has a lot of similarities to derivative pricing.
Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
What would be the inputs to the model? Organized crime would need to be an input. Measuring the need for political change.
New data? What happened?
Why is it taking so long?
For the house 206 for RNC. DNC has 186. ( 218 for win )
For Senate 48 RNC. 46 DNC. ( 51 for win )
.
.
.
If Republicans take both senate and house LOL.
The Republican leader is Donald Trump. He'll have power to block the shit out of Biden's orders.
2024 is going to be so insane. Plus the Lord did a marvelous job exposing evil this past while.
Looks like the red wave was true, Republicans are getting supermajorities all over the USA. Still can't believe this shit takes so long.
Semi-relevant, election modeling is pretty interesting and has a lot of similarities to derivative pricing.
Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
Why don't you write this in your own words? Scared of something?
Semi-relevant, election modeling is pretty interesting and has a lot of similarities to derivative pricing.
Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
Why don't you write this in your own words? Scared of something?
Terrified.
Semi-relevant, election modeling is pretty interesting and has a lot of similarities to derivative pricing.
What would be the inputs to the model? Organized crime would need to be an input. Measuring the need for political change.
It's hard to say what a model needs or doesn't need to be accurate without doing a sensitivity analysis on parameters themselves, which I assume is possible with elections in aggregate given how many have and will take place.
Interestingly there is also variance in the sensitivity of the parameters so what's relevant one year may be less relevant the next. In the end the question comes back to how do you deal with uncertainty and how much uncertainty can be expected?
The point of the paper and video is that inherent to the system attempting to be measured, that is a system with binary outcome with unbounded uncertainty you cannot rely on a forecast as an actual estimate of the probability of the outcomes. This is because the forecasts themselves are random processes that will give a different result each time you run them. So to get an actual estimate you'd need to run them over and over again, which will yield something like a 50/50 outcome.
Here's an example I made for some crypto bros a while back.
These are both models of a coin flip, coin flips like forecasts are random processes.
The first graph is a coin clip that has low variance, so over all the flips the average outcome is always near the actual average outcome which is 1/2.
The second graph is the same thing but with more variance in the outcomes, hence the average outcome fluctuates around the real average by a huge margin.
Both will converge towards 1/2 eventually, the second one just takes forever to do so.
Now think back to 2016 when everyone was giving extreme odds in Hilarys favor, how were they so wrong? They don't realize their forecasts are random processes and predicting an election is useless given the amount of uncertainty, so they consistently get silly expectations.
In the future, if you see extreme outcomes being forecasted just realize the guys who make those models are retarded (Nick Silver)
New data? What happened?
Why is it taking so long?
For the house 206 for RNC. DNC has 186. ( 218 for win )
For Senate 48 RNC. 46 DNC. ( 51 for win )
.
.
.
If Republicans take both senate and house LOL.
The Republican leader is Donald Trump. He'll have power to block the shit out of Biden's orders.
2024 is going to be so insane. Plus the Lord did a marvelous job exposing evil this past while.
Looks like the red wave was true, Republicans are getting supermajorities all over the USA. Still can't believe this shit takes so long.
For the House. Look at California.... Like.... What !?
Here's the Senate.
It doesn't take more than a day to count and recount ballots. It's not like 1 person is counting them all.
Election night hasn't been a thing since 2020. Maybe this time we'll see another miracle for the DNC in a super close race even though MILLIONS of people are involved.
I remember election night 2020. How all the counting stopped that night, and within 4 hours Trump never got 1 vote while Biden got 30,000 or so. The chart looked like this for a few other states...
That night before I checked to see what others were saying, I called Voter Fraud in here. You can see where fake votes were injected. When I did check others were saying, they too called out the voter fraud.
That was the first time Election Night took waaaaay more than 1 night. Last time they blamed COVID. This time who knows. We'll see what happens. Democrats get some extra votes or some fake shit.
New data? What happened?
Why is it taking so long?
For the house 206 for RNC. DNC has 186. ( 218 for win )
For Senate 48 RNC. 46 DNC. ( 51 for win )
.
.
.
If Republicans take both senate and house LOL.
The Republican leader is Donald Trump. He'll have power to block the shit out of Biden's orders.
2024 is going to be so insane. Plus the Lord did a marvelous job exposing evil this past while.
Looks like the red wave was true, Republicans are getting supermajorities all over the USA. Still can't believe this shit takes so long.
For the House. Look at California.... Like.... What !?
Here's the Senate.
It doesn't take more than a day to count and recount ballots. It's not like 1 person is counting them all.
Election night hasn't been a thing since 2020. Maybe this time we'll see another miracle for the DNC in a super close race even though MILLIONS of people are involved.
I remember election night 2020. How all the counting stopped that night, and within 4 hours Trump never got 1 vote while Biden got 30,000 or so. The chart looked like this for a few other states...
That night before I checked to see what others were saying, I called Voter Fraud in here. You can see where fake votes were injected. When I did check others were saying, they too called out the voter fraud.
That was the first time Election Night took waaaaay more than 1 night. Last time they blamed COVID. This time who knows. We'll see what happens. Democrats get some extra votes or some fake shit.
The people are squashing this cheating at the local level. It's taking time. The Democrats are way ahead of the Republicans. The Republicans were busy working and going to church, lol. They got slapped in the face in 2020. Transparent and public election counting. The days of secret counting sessions and voting machine tampering are over. Free and fair elections are coming.
