April 2024. I will remember that date.
The halving countdowns are estimates. In or around April 2024. It's based on an estimate of when another 200,000 blocks are created on BTC's blockchain, which has always been 4 years. When there's less blocks and we're closer to the halving, the exact date will be more clear.
Why it's an estimate is because it relies on how much hashpower is on the Bitcoin network, or how many miners there are on there and how much hashpower they provide. Same difference.
Check this out.
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The above chart is Bitcoin's lifespan( from 5 cents, BTC has been as low as 0.008 cents ) and it shows all halvings. 3 so far in it's history. When it comes to Bitcoin's halving one must note, it doesn't mean BTC will immediately pump. But it will soon happens in some months. To be clear the halving is the line itself and following it, is it's effect, so the first section has no halving.
What is the Bitcoin halving ?
Every 4 years Bitcoin's mining difficulty will increase by 50%. So if a miner is making 1 BTC a month, after the halving they'll make 0.5 BTC a month. Today in some places it costs $12,000 in operating cost to mine 1 BTC, so the next halving will make it 24k in electricity to mine 1 Bitcoin.
That being said miners absolutely have to sell some of their Bitcoin into the market to cover operating costs. This also increases BTC's scarcity. It becomes more rare, thus driving up the demand to a shorter supply with twice as much time and work involved in releasing the BTC into the market.
That part where the graph dips below the line, that was around the time we were getting lockdowns and stocks and commodities plummeted in value.
I seem to recall a livestream less than a month ago where Elon Musk was giving away his bitcoin, so not a good idea to buy rn, I would assume.
If you see any videos of celebrities giving away free crypto, it's scam. If you watch the video it'll be an upload of something unrelated. That also happens in twitter and other platforms.
Elon put $50 billion into BTC. That's more than his Twitter offer, no way in hell will he do some giveaway, even on a small scale.
But it will continue to drop before it rises again. So my Inner Disaster Capitalist is stirring.
How low should I watch it drop before it's the optimum time to buy again?
No one can be sure really, but it's common for us to see a 75% pull back whenever we see major BTC corrections like this one. The last correction went as low as -84%
The streets are then filled with blood and panic and the chart takes a death spiral. But what's really happening, the whales are shaking people out, so they can buy more at lower prices, only to pump it higher than it's ever been before.
So at -75% or -85% we might actually see a $12,000 BTC between now and 2024.
Of course anyone who can buy the absolute bottom and sell the absolute top is extremely gifted and will most likely be visited by men in black suits.
And do you think the results of the Russo-Ukrainian War will affect bitcoin prices like the conflict is currently affecting OPEC's decision making wrt pricing the world's oil? (That fuckin sucks for those of us who have our own and could actually supply ourselves without ever having to answer to another world power over pricing or anything else >:T)
I mean the reverse correlation with the war and bitcoin prices, obviously.
Yes. Everything that happens in the economy affects all markets. These days people are broke. Gas is made of crude oil and gas prices are killing them, investing isn't looking good as the majority of investors suck and they'll only accumulate only when the market already pumped then get rekt and sell off, just like they 2018 BTC crash.
People who bought the $19,500 top could have 3x if they rode it out.
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( December 2017 used to be a giant hill, now it's become puny )Taking the historical pullbacks into consideration, I've opted to measure the line between 75% and 85% so 80% and there we'll find, not the answer, but an answer, but it could be the answer, or close to it.
And remember shit can happen, like a pandemic. By some miracle, we still saw an 80% dip which is actually 5% more than technically expected.
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Ignore the days in the above red box, I'm just measuring the dip
There's no rush to get into the market at this point in time.
Why is it that in the past 13 years, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been exploding and outperforming the stock market ? More people are getting on board with each passing year.
In 2024, it'll make 2021 look like it's previous years, and maybe even more so since the Fiat dollar sux. Prices rise cause the value of the dollar falls, remember that. People will say crypto sux, because Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger don't like it. Or they only believe in the magic federal paper.
The economy is so bad, in the next bull run there's going to be more participants throwing their money into the best performing assets. If it happens before the halving that'll be a first, but I don't think so. Regular investors are spent, and working their asses off for now. When we see more sideways consolidation then we can start to anticipate a turn around, which hasn't happened yet.
No rush no rush.
Except for Pulsechain. Coming soon, this one is not to be slept on.
