Ahh, so Major Major is Legga given major majors use of Bayesian reasoning.
Peach has told me that he has previously admitted this but I was unaware.
Ironically, I could increase my certainty of MajorMajor being Legga by using Bayesian Analysis in a similar manner to what Wallace and Mosteller did to discern the authorship of the contested Federalist papers.
I'm not Major Major.
Ahh, so Major Major is Legga given major majors use of Bayesian reasoning.
Peach has told me that he has previously admitted this but I was unaware.
Ironically, I could increase my certainty of MajorMajor being Legga by using Bayesian Analysis in a similar manner to what Wallace and Mosteller did to discern the authorship of the contested Federalist papers.
I'm not Major Major.
I you say so.
I had this idea last night so its still in its infancy but logically it’s like the simulation hypothesis because it can be presented as a trilemma under similar terms.
- The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of artificially or biologically producing high-intelligence beings) is very close to zero OR
- The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in producing high intelligences is very close to zero OR
- The fraction of all beings with our level of intelligence created by other intelligences is close to one.
From here, like Bostroms’ reasoning implied by his simulation hypothesis, it can be said:
If the third proposition is the one that is true and almost all intelligences are created by other intelligences, then we are most probably created by an intelligence.
This is pretty interesting, and I find it has similar elements to the Fermi paradox too (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjtOGPJ0URM, although I don't trust the Drake's equation, for a good reason, so take it with a grain of salt). The idea is that if we were to accept that life should spawn spontaneously all across the Universe and form intelligence, the fact that we don't see any life implies that all life likely died before they could live long enough to give us some sort of a signal (otherwise expect there to be signals coming from all over space, although perhaps they simply decided not to broadcast themselves for one reason or another).
By extension, our civilization will also die without populating the rest of outer space and living for aeons.
Fun food for thought. I like that channel, Kurzgesagt. It's become pretty popular.
