I'm not going to bore you by linking all the scientific reports and articles I've been referencing. (lol i couldnt help myself sorry)
Instead I'll link just this one, because it is the most relevant (to the talk about a deadlier second strain) and concise:
It is normal for Coronaviruses to have multiple strains
I'm going to list all the facts about coronavirus that are relevant and not talked about enough in the media
Keep in mind that when I say coronavirus, I'm talking about the general group of viruses that includes many strains of SARS, COVID-2019, and MERS. SIRS, however, is the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, which is a feature of coronaviruses.
- The 2-strain model for SIRS viruses is known and expected
- A dominant strain will become most frequent and will be replaced in dominance by the second strain. This is a cycle. A 3-strain or multi-strain model has been proposed as well, but it seems the 2-strain model is more widely accepted.
- There are 2 strains of COVID-2019:
- The L-type is the first strain found in circulation. It is older and more virulent and aggressive.
- Was more dominant strain in the earlier outbreak phases
- This strain has become less frequent as the spread progressed
- The S-type is the second strain. It is less aggressive or virulent.
- The L-type is the first strain found in circulation. It is older and more virulent and aggressive.
- There is talk that genetic signatures from multiple viruses has been found in COVID-2019
- This is not surprising: it is similar to SARS and MERS
- It is known that Multiple Respiratory Viruses (MVS) have genetic similarities
- This is called Conserved Transcriptional Signatures and is used for testing for multiple types of respiratory viruses at the same time.
- There have been two types of tests for COVID-2019
- The earlier one was not accurate and therefore we cannot determine how many people are actually infected
- This is statistically significant: assume all current numbers and projections are innacurate
- The newer test requires 2 positive test results out of 5
- This is common for tests of many ailments but still unreliable
- The earlier one was not accurate and therefore we cannot determine how many people are actually infected
- Science moves very slowly: take what you hear with a grain of salt
- Do not go on a frenzy over week old results from a research paper
- A hypothesis must be repeated and proved many many times before it is confirmed as a theory or law
- This can take decades
- Mortality Rates
- Flu: 1%
- SARS (2013): 10%
- MERS (2012): 34%
- COVID-2019: estimated at 3.4% (however I disagree that the data is reliable)
- Ebola: 40%
- Nipah: 77%
- COVID-19 more closely resembles SARS and its mortality rate should reflect that
- only when its rate exceeds 10% will we know that this is a more dangerous strain of Coronavirus
- Response
- Obama waited till 1000 confirmed cases of Ebola to declare a National Emergency
- Trump waited for only 1 unconfirmed case due to media frenzy
- Entry from China is already restricted
- For the sake of brevity: Trumps response has been much hastier
- History
- Coronaviruses originate from horseshoe bats mainly
- 11 new strains of SARS and several older strains were sequenced in horseshoe bats in caves of southern china
- All strains contained all the essential genetic building blocks of the human SARS coronavirus
- This is where the epidemic cycling is originating from. This is China's fault: due to culture and ignorance
- This is not the first SARS type of Coronavirus that has become an epidemic and it doesn't show signs of being worse than the previous ones. This *can* change if the mortality rate quadrouples
- Opinion: I would link a quote of a researcher saying that COVID-19 doesn't show to be more dangerous but I won't because that's one mans opinion.